Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

With the 2024 Presidential election just around the corner, you might be wondering how it could be impacting the housing market. Let’s break it down.

A Temporary Slowdown in Election Years Every fall, it’s common to see a slight slowdown in home sales—a normal, seasonal pattern. But during election years, this dip tends to be a bit deeper. According to data from BTIG, in the month leading up to Election Day, we typically see a larger-than-usual drop in home sales:

Why does this happen? It all comes down to uncertainty. Many buyers and sellers hold off on big decisions, waiting to see how the election turns out. It’s a trend we’ve seen in past elections, especially in the real estate market.

This year is no exception. In a recent Redfin survey, 23% of potential first-time buyers mentioned they’re waiting until after the election to make a move. That’s nearly a quarter of new buyers putting things on hold—likely due to the same uncertainty.

The Post-Election Rebound in Home Sales Here’s the good news: these postponed sales usually come back after the election. Historically, home sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following an election. Once the election results are in, buyers and sellers generally feel more confident about moving forward, which leads to a boost in home sales.

What This Could Mean for 2025 If the trend continues, we can expect more homes to sell next year. Current forecasts are already pointing that way. This year, the housing market is projected to see 4.6 million sales, with next year’s forecasts pushing closer to 5.2 million. So, while it might feel like the market is slowing right now, it’s more of a temporary dip than a lasting trend. Once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers usually return to the market.

The Bottom Line Election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, but it’s just that—a pause, not a permanent change. Data shows home sales typically rise in the year following a Presidential election, and forecasts indicate that 2025 will be no different. So, if you’re waiting for a bit more clarity before making a move, the market is expected to pick up again soon.