The tide may turn in 2026

A shift may finally be coming in 2026. The housing market is expected to move toward a more balanced environment, giving buyers more room to negotiate and more options to choose from.

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The tide may turn in 2026

After years of intense competition, low inventory, and surging prices, 2026 is projected to be the “most balanced housing market” since the pandemic, where neither buyers nor sellers clearly dominate. Realtor.com’s senior economist Jake Krimmel describes 2026 as a year when the market should “steady” and show signs of getting back to something closer to normal.

For buyers who have felt squeezed out by high prices and high mortgage rates, that could mean a little more leverage and a lot less pressure.

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What’s changing: prices, rates, and sales

Several key shifts are expected to reshape the landscape next year:

• Home prices are projected to decline in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. cities, particularly across parts of the Southeast and West.

• In the remaining 78 large markets, prices are still expected to rise, but at a modest median pace of about 4%, rather than the double‑digit surges seen during the pandemic boom.

• Mortgage rates are forecast to ease slightly, averaging around 6.3% in 2026 compared with about 6.6% in 2025, which could help more buyers qualify and improve monthly payment affordability.

• Existing‑home sales are projected to tick up to about 4.13 million, a small increase from an estimated 4.07 million this year, but a meaningful improvement after a relatively flat 2025.

None of this points to a crash, but it does point to a cooler, more negotiable market.

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Where prices may actually dip

Not every market will behave the same way. Some of the largest projected price drops are concentrated in boom‑and‑bust type areas that saw intense pandemic demand.

• Many of the 22 markets expecting price declines are in the Southeast and the West.

• In Florida, seven of the eight biggest cities are projected to see home price declines, with Miami as the notable exception.

• The Cape Coral–Fort Myers metro (referenced as Cape Coral–Fort Lauderdale in the analysis) is expected to lead the nation with a projected 10.2% drop in prices.

• The North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton region is close behind, with an expected 8.9% decline.

These are areas where inventory has grown and demand has cooled from the COVID‑era frenzy fueled by ultra‑low mortgage rates and the surge in remote work.

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Why the market is normalizing

Several forces are working together to push the market toward balance:

• Inventory has expanded in some formerly overheated metros, giving buyers more choices and reducing bidding wars.

• Pandemic‑era demand is “coming back down to earth” as remote‑work relocations and ultra‑cheap financing fade.

• Wage growth remains solid, which, paired with slightly lower mortgage rates, should help more households step into the market.

• Builders have added new supply in many regions, easing some of the extreme shortages that drove prices higher.

The result is a market that’s still competitive, but not frantic.

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What this means if you’re buying or selling

For buyers, 2026 could finally bring more breathing room: more listings to choose from, a bit more negotiating power, and slightly better financing conditions. Instead of waiving every contingency and racing to outbid 10 other offers, buyers in many markets may be able to negotiate repairs, credits, or modest price reductions.

For sellers, pricing strategically will matter more than ever. In markets expecting declines or very slow growth, buyers will be more sensitive to overpricing, and homes that are not move‑in ready may sit longer or require concessions. In still‑growing markets, realistic pricing and strong presentation can still generate solid activity—but the days of automatic double‑digit appreciation appear to be behind us, at least for now.

If this shift toward a more balanced market does materialize, 2026 may be remembered as the year the housing market finally took its foot off the gas and allowed both sides—buyers and sellers—to meet on more equal ground.